Macquarie Strategists Predict Volatility in U.S. Crude Inventories

The team cautioned that the timing of cargo deliveries could introduce volatility into this week’s crude oil balance

In a report to Rigzone, Macquarie strategists predicted that US crude oil stocks would rise by 0.6 million barrels for the week ending August 2. The team cautioned that the timing of cargo deliveries could introduce volatility into this week’s crude oil balance. The report also revised earlier product forecasts, predicting a significant decline in gasoline stocks by 3.6 million barrels, a slight decrease in distillate stocks by 0.2 million barrels, and a modest increase in jet fuel inventories by 0.3 million barrels.

This comes after a recent report from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 3.4 million barrels from the week ending July 19 to July 26. Prior to this EIA update, Macquarie had anticipated a larger decrease of 3.9 million barrels for the same period.

In a subsequent report, the strategists highlighted an unexpected reduction in crude runs by 0.3 million barrels per day, exceeding their initial estimates. The Macquarie team continues to closely monitor these trends, noting that cargo delivery schedules remain a key factor in market fluctuations. These insights provide a nuanced view of the current and future state of U.S. oil inventories, amid ongoing market unpredictability.