Valentine's Day Spending to Hit $29B; Merit Raises Prices

NRF forecasts Valentine's Day spending will reach $29B, with consumers budgeting ~$200. Beauty brand Merit announces price increases on select products.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that Valentine's Day spending in the United States will reach a record $29 billion this year, with consumers planning to spend an average of roughly $200 on gifts, experiences, and celebrations. This represents a significant increase year-over-year, driven by spending on partners, family, friends, and even pets. In related retail news, direct-to-consumer beauty brand Merit has announced it will raise prices on a selection of its core makeup and skincare products, citing increased costs for ingredients and sustainable packaging.

The NRF's annual survey indicates a broadening of the holiday's gift-giving circle, with more consumers planning to celebrate with friends, coworkers, and their children's classmates. Jewelry, evening outings, and candy remain top categories, but spending on "gift experiences" continues to grow. Concurrently, Merit's price adjustment, effective next month, targets some of its bestselling items like its Minimalist Perfecting Complexion Stick and Clean Lash Lengthening Mascara. The brand stated the increases are necessary to maintain quality and its commitment to clean, vegan formulas.

"Consumers are prioritizing meaningful connections and are willing to spend, making Valentine's Day a major mid-winter sales pillar for retailers," said an NRF spokesperson. Regarding the price hike, Merit's founder stated, "This decision was not made lightly. We are committed to transparency and ensuring our products deliver unmatched quality without compromising our values."

The strong Valentine's forecast signals sustained consumer confidence and a willingness to spend on discretionary, emotional purchases despite broader economic uncertainties. Merit's move reflects ongoing pressures in the beauty and cosmetics industry, where brands face rising input costs and must balance customer loyalty with margin preservation. It also tests the pricing power of digitally-native brands in a competitive market.

The NRF will release a post-holiday sales analysis in early March. Consumers and retailers will be watching to see if the optimistic spending forecast materializes and how the market responds to Merit's new pricing strategy in the weeks following the change.