Recent reports and statistical analysis have reported that Amazon will surpass Walmart in total merchandise sales in the US. Besides, Walmart is growing its sales volume by more than 20 percent every year. An April report from e-commerce data company Edge reported that Amazon wouldn't pass Walmart until 2025. But J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth thinks Amazon will pass Walmart in US sales by the end of next year.
Amazon currently holds a market share of approximately 40 percent of all online sales in the US, which puts its gross merchandise volume to around $327 billion. Also, Amazon has a "small" physical retail operation that's brought in over $15 billion in revenue over the last four quarters. This makes the total retail volume around $340 billion. In contrast, Walmart US and Sam's Club generated a combined income of $439 billion over the last four quarters. Walmart also operates a third-party merchant marketplace.
So, as of now, Amazon is still about $100 billion behind Walmart. That's a big gap to make up in just seven quarters. But there are slight chances that Amazon's gross merchandise volume, excluding its physical stores, will climb to $377 billion this year and reach $457 billion in 2022. Henceforth, there is still a lot of room for e-commerce to take a share of total retail sales, which will lead to sustainable double-digit growth.