OpenAI Forecasts Cash Burn near $280 Billion by 2030, Reveals Scale of AI Spending

OpenAI projects it will burn through nearly $280 billion in negative free cash flow by the end of 2030 as it spends over $850 billion on computing infrastructure, according to a company presentation seen by the Financial Times.

OpenAI expects to burn through almost $280 billion by the end of 2030, according to a company presentation reviewed by the Financial Times. The projection, which covers the five-year period from 2026 to 2030, highlights the enormous long-term funding needs of the ChatGPT maker as it pushes for a valuation exceeding $1.2 trillion in fresh investment talks.

The Numbers behind the Burn

The company projects negative free cash flow of $278 billion over the five-year period. Revenue is expected to rise from $36 billion in 2026 to $350 billion in 2030, totaling $840 billion during the period. However, spending on computing power and infrastructure, its largest single expense, is projected to reach approximately $856 billion by the end of 2030. OpenAI raised $122 billion in March 2026, but the presentation suggests that cash would be exhausted by 2028 at the current burn rate. The company had forecast even deeper negative free cash flow of $305 billion in a prior projection in May, indicating some improvement in its outlook.

The Infrastructure Gamble

The massive projected cash burn reflects the pressure on OpenAI's business model. The company needs to pour hundreds of billions of dollars into data centers and computing power to train and run its models. It has also slashed prices as it seeks to win business from rival Anthropic and see off the threat from cheaper, open-weight models from China. OpenAI forecasts spending about $856 billion on computing power and infrastructure by the end of 2030, by far its largest single expense. The company is targeting roughly $600 billion in total compute spend through 2030, according to a source familiar with the matter. CEO Sam Altman has said OpenAI is committed to spending $1.4 trillion to develop 30 gigawatts of computing resources.

Valuation and IPO Uncertainty

The company is currently valued at $852 billion and is asking investors for a price above $1.2 trillion, according to a person close to the company. Backers approached OpenAI to discuss investing at the $1.2 trillion valuation, though the company is pushing for a higher figure. OpenAI had targeted an initial public offering this autumn, confidentially filing its paperwork to the Securities and Exchange Commission in June. But it has since deferred that process, citing growing public concern about the risks posed by fast-developing AI systems. CEO Sam Altman has indicated the IPO will be delayed to 2027, saying the timing is not right given AI safety concerns.

A Network of Dependencies

OpenAI's ability to meet its vast funding needs is critical to a network of financial arrangements and hardware deals the company has built up as it seeks to lock in scarce computing power. Large tech groups from chipmaker Nvidia to Oracle and SoftBank's data center business depend heavily on contracts with OpenAI for their future revenues. Nvidia has backed up to $105 billion in financing guarantees for a massive OpenAI data center in Ohio, with the chipmaker expecting roughly $200 billion in chip sales from just the first phase. OpenAI committed to exclusively using Nvidia chips at the site, which will eventually deliver 8 gigawatts of compute power. There are signs the heavy spending may have a pay-off. New model releases led to an increase in OpenAI's annualized revenue of about 20 per cent in July.

Here is the question this forecast raises. OpenAI projects burning through nearly $280 billion by 2030 while spending $856 billion on infrastructure, with the company betting that eventual returns will justify the faith of investors. When the future revenues of Nvidia, Oracle, and SoftBank depend on OpenAI's ability to pay, what happens to the AI ecosystem if the money runs out before the profits arrive?

FAQ:

Q: How much does OpenAI expect to burn through by 2030?
A: OpenAI projects negative free cash flow of $278 billion over the five-year period from 2026 to 2030.

Q: What are OpenAI's revenue projections through 2030?
A: Revenue is expected to grow tenfold from $36 billion in 2026 to $350 billion in 2030, totaling $840 billion over the period.

Q: How much will OpenAI spend on computing infrastructure?
A: OpenAI forecasts spending approximately $856 billion on computing power and infrastructure by the end of 2030, its largest single expense.

Q: When will OpenAI run out of cash?
A: The presentation suggests OpenAI's $122 billion raised in March 2026 would be exhausted by 2028 at the current burn rate.

Q: What is OpenAI's current valuation and target valuation?
A: OpenAI is currently valued at $852 billion and is pushing for a valuation above $1.2 trillion in new funding talks.

Q: Why has OpenAI delayed its IPO?
A: OpenAI deferred its IPO, citing growing public concern about AI risks. CEO Sam Altman indicated the listing will be delayed to 2027.

Q: What network of dependencies does OpenAI's spending create?
A: Nvidia, Oracle, and SoftBank's data center business depend heavily on contracts with OpenAI for future revenues. Nvidia has backed $105 billion in financing guarantees for an OpenAI data center in Ohio.